Filtered polling data: Hung Parliament

December 12, 2007

Inputting the latest Mori poll into Samplemiser gives us the following projection: Conservatives 40.23 Labour 32.23 Liberal Democrats 15.86. This gives an unchanged projection of Conservatives 321 Labour 268 Liberal Democrats 30, which would be hung parliament but one with the Conservatives strong enough to run the government without having to seek a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. An updated copy of the filtered data since the end of August is available here british-polls-as-of-dec-12.pdf (a UNS is used for the parliamentary projections). Interesting over the hundred days for which I’ve kept records the UNS model has predicted a Labour majority and a hung parliament 44 times each with the Conservatives only winning a majority 12 times.


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