Final thoughts on last night

TPT gives his final thoughts on the Mayoral Election.

1. From a betting point of view the results were dire. My last minute bet on Ken Livingstone proved to be wasted, while despite the projections that Johnson would get 46% of the vote, in the end he failed to pass the 45% mark.

2. The election of Boris Johnson proves that, no matter how controversial the opposing candidate, if you run a poor enough campaign you will lose. If Labour had run a generic candidate and stuck to the issues they would have beaten Johnson.

3. My final Samplemiser projection was a Boris lead of 8.15%, which was not far off the 6.1% margin.

4. Although I wish Johnson all the best I will be counting down the days until May 1st 2012. Hopefully, Ken Livingstone will not throw his hat in the ring again. The fact that the BNP got an assembly seat is really depressing.

Not over until its over

Although everybody assumes that Johnson has won, the results will only be declared at 6pm, so I’ve put a cheeky £10 at 20/1 on Ken Livingstone with Betfair.

FINAL PREDICTION: Johnson leads by 8.15%

Johnson doing well

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are now:

Boris Johnson 43.16
Ken Livingstone 35.01
Brian Paddick 13.94

I’ve been giving a paper at Oxford so I’ve only just got back. Looks like Boris Johnson will be the next Mayor of London. I’m not including the last MRUK poll because it didn’t give any date or sample size. In any case the polls are going to close within the next forty-five minutes.

NOTE: this prediction only covers the first preferences.

Johnson leads by 6.32% on first preferences

Johnson doing well

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are now:

Boris Johnson 44.01
Ken Livingstone 37.69
Brian Paddick 11.86

This is obviously bad news for Ken Livingstone, although he is still relatively close to Boris Johnson. Of course, since it is unlikely that either candidate will get to 50% on first preferences alone it all depends the second choices of supporters of the minor party candidates.

Boris Johnson leads by 5.82% (1st prefs)

Good news for Boris Johnson

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are now:

Boris Johnson 44.95
Ken Livingstone 39.13
Brian Paddick 11.96

The contest is moderately close with the question of whether one of the candidates will get more than 45% on the first preferences the main question. My view is that Johnson has a 60% chance of winning and there is a 55% of at least one of the candidates getting more than 45%.

Note: I have the following bets with Ladbrokes on the London Mayoral Election

£10 Boris Johnson (1st pref) >50% @ 8/1
£25 Boris Johnson (1st pref) 45-49% @ 4/1
£4 Ken Livingstone (1st pref) >50% @ 33/1
£10 Ken Livingstone (1st pref) 45-49% @ 8/1

Boris Johnson leads by 2.17%

Will either Johnson or Livingstone get more than 45%?

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are now:

Boris Johnson 42.06
Ken Livingstone 39.89
Brian Paddick 13.41

The contest seems to be very close. My guess is that the eventual margin will lie between a 5% Johnson victory and a 2% Livingstone victory. However, I believe that at least one, if not both, of either Johnson or Livingstone will get over 45% of the vote making the Ladbrokes market on the vote shares of the respective candidates really good value.

Johnson leads by 11.5%

Boris surges ahead.

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are:

Boris Johnson 48.16
Ken Livingstone 36.56
Brian Paddick 10

Boris Johnson’s is pretty back where is was before the last projection, strongly suggesting that the ICM poll may have been an outlier. Ken Livingstone’s back is pretty much up against the wall and it is difficult, though not impossible, to see how he can recover from this deficit.

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Johnson’s lead falls to less than 1.65%

Good news for Ken Livingstone

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are:

Boris Johnson 42.31
Ken Livingstone 40.76
Brian Paddick 10

Boris Johnson’s lead has declined dramatically. Although people will inevitably attack the poll’s methodology (and it should be pointed out that an alternative reading of the poll gives Johnson gives him at 8% lead) Livingstone is catching up, not really because of ethusiasm for the incumbent, but because of second thoughts about Johnson.

Boris Johnson leads by 10.08%

Johnson’s lead falls slightly, but he is still clearly ahead.

 

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are:

Boris Johnson 47.08
Ken Livingstone 37
Brian Paddick 10.03

Boris Johnson has a clear lead, although it fell slightly. Liviningstone is in extremely serious trouble and he needs to abandon his anemic campaign and focus on the things that he has done for London, such as the development of the Oyster cards, and his role in the economic development of London.

Ken Livingstone’s price continues to drift out

But are the markets going too far?

The odds on Ken Livingstone being re-elected Mayor of London continue to drift out. This raises the interesting question of whether there is value in betting on the current Mayor. Although he is doing badly in the opinion polls, and there are indications that he might not receive the second preferences from the minor candidates that he has been expecting, I believe that he is still in with about a 40% chance. After all, up until now he has had the Lee Jasper scandal to contend with, and Boris Johnson has betting getting some pretty good coverage in the press. However, he will have the Labour machine behind him and as the election approaches the press are going to start to be more critical of Johnson. Personally, I am going to hold off either way until the next polls show if Johnson’s lead in the polls is holding.

Johnson leads Livingstone by 11.85%

Some very good news for Johnson.

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are:

Boris Johnson 48.89
Ken Livingstone 37.04
Brian Paddick 12

Boris Johnson has a clear lead, more than justifying his current price. However, because of the nature of this contest (which uses IRV/STV) it is impossible to rule Ken Livingstone out completely.

Livingstone’s Price Continues to Decline

Bettors continue to move away from the Mayor

The implied probability of Ken Livingstone being re-elected as Mayor of London has fallen to just above 40% on the back of bad polls ratings for Labour, especially in London. Although this could well be a ‘tipping point’ that turns a malaise for Labour nationally into a big enough Conservative lead to give them a majority, I doubt that it really justifies those sorts of odds. I think that, despite the downards trend, there might be some value in betting on the incumbent.

Market continues to move against Livingstone

But it is now time to back Ken Livingstone?

As this chart shows, the odds on Ken Livingstone winning re-election as the Mayor London have fallen quite sharply. Although, I agree with David Aaronivich’s article that Ken Livingstone should win because he happens to be good at the important aspects of his job (although he is awful at the symbolic aspects) he has been running lackluster campaign that has made a hash out of the task of beating Boris Johnson. My view is that the fair price should be about evens, which is where it is at the moment. So, unless you are a fan of charts, and want to view this as a technical play, there isn’t much fundamental value in this market.

Intrade opens a market on the London Mayoral Contest

An alternative to Betfair for those interested in betting on the Mayoralty of the ‘Big Smoke’

One of the ironies of this website has been that while I have extensively commented on American betting markets, I have said little recently about those on the other side of the Atlantic. One of the reasons for this is that as a non-American who has no direct stake in the outcome (except of course in regards to the War on Terror) I can be more objective about the US elections. Indeed, even though I may lean towards McCain because of his foriegn policy stance I have no overriding loyalty to either the Democrats or the Republicans. Another reason is that there isn’t much going on in British politics these days. However, on May 4th Londoners (like myself) will go to the polls. Up until now punters have only been limited to the market on Betfair.com. However, at my prompting, Intrade.com have launched a market on the mayoral election. I will therefore step up my coverage of the mayoral election over the next few weeks.