Boris Johnson leads by 2.17%

April 10, 2008

Will either Johnson or Livingstone get more than 45%?


My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are now:

Boris Johnson 42.06
Ken Livingstone 39.89
Brian Paddick 13.41

The contest seems to be very close. My guess is that the eventual margin will lie between a 5% Johnson victory and a 2% Livingstone victory. However, I believe that at least one, if not both, of either Johnson or Livingstone will get over 45% of the vote making the Ladbrokes market on the vote shares of the respective candidates really good value.


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