Boris Johnson leads by 5.82% (1st prefs)

April 15, 2008

Good news for Boris Johnson


My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are now:

Boris Johnson 44.95
Ken Livingstone 39.13
Brian Paddick 11.96

The contest is moderately close with the question of whether one of the candidates will get more than 45% on the first preferences the main question. My view is that Johnson has a 60% chance of winning and there is a 55% of at least one of the candidates getting more than 45%.

Note: I have the following bets with Ladbrokes on the London Mayoral Election

£10 Boris Johnson (1st pref) >50% @ 8/1
£25 Boris Johnson (1st pref) 45-49% @ 4/1
£4 Ken Livingstone (1st pref) >50% @ 33/1
£10 Ken Livingstone (1st pref) 45-49% @ 8/1


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