Ken Livingstone’s price continues to drift out

March 21, 2008

But are the markets going too far?


The odds on Ken Livingstone being re-elected Mayor of London continue to drift out. This raises the interesting question of whether there is value in betting on the current Mayor. Although he is doing badly in the opinion polls, and there are indications that he might not receive the second preferences from the minor candidates that he has been expecting, I believe that he is still in with about a 40% chance. After all, up until now he has had the Lee Jasper scandal to contend with, and Boris Johnson has betting getting some pretty good coverage in the press. However, he will have the Labour machine behind him and as the election approaches the press are going to start to be more critical of Johnson. Personally, I am going to hold off either way until the next polls show if Johnson’s lead in the polls is holding.


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