Livingstone’s Price Continues to Decline

March 17, 2008

Bettors continue to move away from the Mayor


The implied probability of Ken Livingstone being re-elected as Mayor of London has fallen to just above 40% on the back of bad polls ratings for Labour, especially in London. Although this could well be a ‘tipping point’ that turns a malaise for Labour nationally into a big enough Conservative lead to give them a majority, I doubt that it really justifies those sorts of odds. I think that, despite the downards trend, there might be some value in betting on the incumbent.


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