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Should McCain stay or should he go?

November 15, 2007

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The Senator from Arizona faces some tough decisions about Iowa.

Putting the all the Iowa polls since September 27th through Samplemiser produces the following projections: Romney 28.77 Huckabee 19.69 Giuliani 13.26 Thompson 10.11 McCain 5.71 and Ron Paul 4.55. Apart from showing that Huckabee is a serious challenger to Romney, and that Thompson needs to pull his socks up, it shows that McCain is facing a meltdown in Iowa. This presents him with a dilemma as his campaign is not making any headway in the Hawkeye state. On the one hand this would suggest that he should simply abandon any pretence of trying to compete there and concentrate on New Hampshire and South Carolina. However, McCain needs to put in a credible performance in Iowa to gain some momentum and to prevent Giuliani from performing so well that he becomes the default candidate of the centrist bloc, or even the inevitable winner. He also cannot afford the humiliation of being beaten by the crank candidate, Ron Paul. His problems are also compounded by severe financial problems, the decision to abandon his crusade to drive Republican economic policy to the centre and the large amount of time that he is wasting campaigning in the later primary states. Indeed, his campaign reminds one of that carried out by his fellow centrist and colleague, Joe Lieberman four years ago. In that campaign Lieberman adopted a strategy of running on his electoral appeal, focusing on the later states and trying to emphasise his liberal credentials.

What do you think? If you agree or disagree with me please leave a comment below.

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2 comments

  1. […] Publicani â?? Democratic, Republican, Libertarian News on Individual Liberty and Privacy wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt The Senator from Arizona faces some tough decisions about Iowa. Putting the all the Iowa polls since September 27th through Samplemiser produces the following projections: Romney 28.77 Huckabee 19.69 Giuliani 13.26 Thompson 10.11 McCain 5.71 and Ron Paul 4.55. Apart from showing that Huckabee is a serious challenger to Romney, and that Thompson needs to pull his socks up, it shows that McCain is facing a meltdown in Iowa. This presents him with a dilemma as his campaign is not making any headway in the Hawkeye state. On the one hand this would suggest that he should simply abandon any pretence of trying to compete there and concentrate on New Hampshire and South Carolina. However, McCain needs to put in a credible performance in Iowa to gain some momentum and to prevent Giuliani from performing so well that he becomes the default candidate of the centrist bloc, or even the inevitable […] […]


  2. […] thepoliticaltipster put an intriguing blog post on Should McCain stay or should he go?Here’s a quick excerpt […]



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