FINAL PREDICTION: Johnson leads by 8.15%

Johnson doing well

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are now:

Boris Johnson 43.16
Ken Livingstone 35.01
Brian Paddick 13.94

I’ve been giving a paper at Oxford so I’ve only just got back. Looks like Boris Johnson will be the next Mayor of London. I’m not including the last MRUK poll because it didn’t give any date or sample size. In any case the polls are going to close within the next forty-five minutes.

NOTE: this prediction only covers the first preferences.