Obama still leads in MI, MO, OH & PA

October 8, 2008

Obama set to sweep the ‘Big Four’

Some statewide projections for the swing states of Pennsylvania and Ohio are below (my methodology is here):

Michigan: Obama + 4.15
Missouri: Obama + 2.81
Ohio: Obama + 3.26
Pennsylvania: Obama + 12.18

At the moment Obama is project to sweep at least four out of the six swing states that have predicted the electoral college winner in every election since 1912. However, McCain can take some consolation that Obama’s lead in the two states carried by Bush (Missouri and Ohio) is extremely slender. Obama may be powering ahead, but the election is by no means over, although if the election were held today McCain would need a lot of luck to snatch a victory fromt the jaws of defeat. One gets the feeling that the whole McCain/Palin edifice (especially the latter part of the ticket) is one blow away from crumbling – although it has to be said that McCain has managed to come back from certain defeat before.


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