Obama leads McCain by a record amount

October 6, 2008

Palin descends into the gutter

My new projections are (my methodology is here):

Barack Obama 50.72
John McCain 44.04

Barack Obama’s lead is at its highest since I started looking at polling projections just before Super Tuesday. This surpasses (by 0.01%!) the previous record on June 7th, the day Hillary Clinton formally conceeded. To be frank, I think McCain’s camp is starting to go a little bit too far with their attacks on Obama. While I believe that McCain was wrong to take Jeremiah Wright off the table, I believe that going around talking about Obama “palling around with terrorists” is something that is both electorally counterproductive and something that could incite people to acts of violence.

At best it is dirty campaigning which sullies the reputations of everyone involved, especially McCain and Palin, but also McCain’s surrogates. On the other hand, although I’m not happy that Joe Lieberman has been forced to appear at rallies with Palin, he has avoided making claims about her foreign policy credentials or her abilities and stuck to the relatively apolitical ‘concerned citizen/Washington outsider’ line. Given that Lieberman and others may be fighting Palin and her ilk for the role of the loyal opposition in the next four years, that seems a wise and honourable choice. Other surrogates have not been so high minded.

I’ve begun closing the rest of my non portfolio positions on McCain, starting with my spread betting position. My view is that McCain’s chances are around 25% and that a damming report on the “Troopergate” scandal may give him the chance to go down fighting with his head held high – rather than with Sarah Palin around his neck.



  1. don’t count the egss till they are hatched


  2. Look, I’m not an Obama supporter (and I’m only neutral because of Palin). But even as someone who agrees with McCain and on Iraq and Trade I have to state that this new tone is a mistake.

  3. You can see if you are right or wrong after the election .. till then it is just your own opinion

  4. It’s “Don’t count your chickens until they’re hatched.”

    Either know your idioms, or know you’re an idiot.

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