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Obama leads by 0.37%

September 18, 2008

Obama now leads, but not by much

My new projections are the following:

Barack Obama 48.04
John McCain 47.67

Before anyone complains, I have produced these figures by filtering polls that use likely voters (excluding the Daily Kos polls) through Samplemiser.

Recent events have moved things in Obama’s favour. However, Obama needs to run simple ads that get his points across in a minute. McCain’s ads on the economy might not have much substance (and they use Atlantic style lighting) but they are more memorable than Obama’s waffling. Obama needs to recognise that he needs to produce arguments that are convincing, as opposed to giving a lecture. For McCain’s part he needs to use this brief interlude from ‘Palinmania’ to figure out whether it might be morally right, and less damaging, if he bit the bullet regarding his running mate now rather than possibly in October.

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One comment

  1. If McCain called out Obama on what his solution to the economic crisis actually is (income redistribution), I think he’d play better than releasing these generic ads.



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