Obama leads by 5.08% nationally

June 13, 2008

TPT’s updated projection show a comfortable lead but will the bounce last?

My new national projections (likely voters, last poll ending June 1st) are:

Barack Obama 49.04
John McCain 43.96

Barack Obama has a comfortable lead against John McCain. However, it seem to have fallen back a bit from its peak of 6.67% on June 7th. McCain really needs to work at getting back to evens by the end of the month. I believe that this is doable because the Obama bounce will wear off. However, McCain does need to make sure in the medium term that all types of Hillary voters, including working class and middle income Democrats, do not slowly drift to the Senator from Illinois. To combat this McCain needs to seriously consider taking the iniative and talking about his progressive record as a Senator, even if this annoys a few members of the fabled ‘Republican base’.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.


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