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New poll propels Obama into the lead in Michigan

June 12, 2008

But the lead is surprsingly small

My latest projections are:

Barack Obama 44.77
John McCain 42.11

Adding the new Rasmussen poll gives Obama a lead of 2.66%. This is a relatively small lead that is barely bigger that would be expected if the national vote were tied. This should suggest that, even with both McCain’s anemic campaign and Obama ‘nominee’ bounce, the race remains a toss-up. This suggests that, as Obama’s honeymoon draws to a close, and it will draw to a close, the state of play will tilt in McCain’s favour, though he needs to make a lot of changes to his campaign.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters because I believe that registered voter polls are inaccurate and systematically biased towards the Democrats. It is a sad reality of modern politics that the poorer and younger you are the less likely you are to actually turn out and vote on Election Day.

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5 comments

  1. Heh… you talk about this Obama ‘bounce’ as temporary. Once Hillary’s crowd return to the Democrats drip by drip, Obama’s lead will grow larger by the day.


  2. Hillary voters are not enough. Mr. Obama needs the Independents.


  3. Mhm… and he’ll win them on his merit alone (not to mention the RNC’s shameful attacks against his wife).


  4. The RNC has nothing to do with the cat-fight between Mrs. Clinton and Mrs. Obama.



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