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McCain ahead in Michigan (as of May 22nd)

June 11, 2008

But would McCain be ahead if the election was held today?

My latest projections are:

John McCain 44.05
Barack Obama 40.2

McCain beats both Obama and Clinton by 4.03%. This is good news because despite the fact that Michigan does not follow national trends a closely as other states (with an R2 of only 0.80), it has an intrinsic bias towards the Democrats of 2.35%. However, the last poll with likely voters was in late May so it may not be a particularly good indicator of the current state of play. If McCain can win Michigan, without putting Mitt Romney on the Republican ticket, then I cannot see how Obama can become President.

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