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Betting Journal: (nearly) closing my Clinton position

June 11, 2008

I sold 11 out of my 12 remaining contracts on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination. Even though Hillary has conceeded defeat and has released her delegates, the markets are quoting her at 4.8-4.9. At least part of this price involves the possibility of some tragic event, as both the combined bid and offer prices of all the Democratic candidates are greater than 100. As a bet on something dramatic happening to Barack Obama, it is both overpriced and something people that is extremely morally dubious. If one really wants to bet on some tape appearing then you would be advised to bet against Obama getting the nomination, because you would then get nothing if there was some sort of attack on him. Because of this sale, I have got $14.44 in free cash in my account.

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