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Obama takes the lead in Missouri

June 10, 2008

More bad news for McCain in Missouri

My latest projections for Missouri are (likely voters only):

Barack Obama 43.12
John McCain 42.35

Of course Obama’s lead of 0.77 is tiny and within the margin of error. However, as a point of reference, my polling data started on March 25th. In that case McCain lead by nearly 15% (14.78 to be exact) and since then it has pretty much been downhill all the way. Although Bush comfortably won Missouri in 2004, and also carried in 2000, it is one of the most reliable predictors of the national vote and has a only an infintesimal bias towards the Republican party. McCain’s downhill performance is symptomatic of a campaign that is stuck in third when it should be in fifth. Although I still think that the Obama bubble could potentially implode of its own accord, we could easily begin to see Obama’s lead at over 5% by the end of this month, which would be a real body blow for his campaign’s confidence.

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One comment

  1. If there’s one factor that may swing this state to Obama, it’s Sen. Claire McCaskill. She campaigned her heart and soul out for Sen. Obama in the primaries, and can I can’t wait to see her support in the general.



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