Obama has a small lead over McCain

June 5, 2008

The last set of polls of the primary season give Obama a small lead


My new national projections (likely voters, last poll ending June 1st) are:

Barack Obama 46.14
John McCain 44.77

Barack Obama has a small lead over McCain. It is interesting to note that at the start of the tracking poll season (February 4th) Obama was actually ahead of McCain by over 6%. Since then the largest Obama lead has been 5.77% on February 17th and the largest McCain lead has been 9.44% on March 25th. The average margin has been a McCain lead of 1.73% and the median result has been a McCain lead of 1.9%. Obama has definitely been hit by Wrightgate, but McCain needs to revamp his strategy if he is going to create the 10%+ leads that he needs to win a strong enough mandate to push through the domestic programme that he, rather than the Republican right, want.

If you are still considering, against my advice, betting on Obama you should note that, in the 1988 election, George HW Bush was nearly 30 points behind Dukakis as late as August. In any case, I think that although Obama might get a small boost from his victory, we should be seeing a small McCain lead by the end of the month. Of course, as I have been saying over and over again, if McCain changes his strategy to one that better suits his reformist leanings he could be putting in high single figure leads. It would also help if he took this time to find a new economic team, who were more interested in sensible centrist economic policies rather than the right wing shibboleths that Gramm seem to support. Even when McCain has a good idea, such as the $5,000 credit for healthcare, his team seem to want him to pitch in language that makes it look like yet another break for the rich, rather than a measure which is actually quite progressive. Indeed, even I had to do a lot of research before I actually learned that it would apply to all American families, rather than just taxpayers – and I doubt that even ‘high information’ voters do that much research on a candidate.


One comment

  1. Obama has no one in the Iraq war so his for or against means little to me as it is just for the public, I looked up his voting on the war, McCain has a son fighting there and one who may go so I tend to beleive he is saying what he truely beleives and not what we want to hear. He has a stake in this just like alot of Americans with children or loved ones over there.

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