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The morning after the end of the primaries

June 4, 2008

But is it worth having a bet on some scandal hitting Obama between now and the Convention?

In any case I think I was right not to take a position on Souh Dakoata, although in the end I did decided to have a (very small) bet on Obama in my Betfair account South Dakota after his odds drifted out to 9/1, as the actual result was pretty much inbetween Mason-Dixon and ARG, both of whom ended up with egg on their faces. Obviously, unless your name is Terry MacAuliffe, the movement of the Superdelegates means that Obama is the Democratic party’s nominee for President. However, the betting markets seem to be holding out some hope for Hillary Clinton, with her price still lingering at 4.9. This could be to do with the persistant rumours about a tape of Michelle Obama engaging in a Jeremiah Wright style rant (I hope it is not for reasons previously suggested by Hillary Clinton).

My view is that Obama will be the next Democratic nominee and that to argue anything else is simply not acknowledging the facts. Indeed, my view is that the rumours about Michelle Obama will fall into the same category any number of rumours about George W / Hillary and others. In any case, I believe that Obama’s position, and the implicit threat of trouble at the convention in Denver conjured up by the nuttier elements of Daily Kos and encouraged by idiots such as Rush Limbaugh, is strong enough to withstand such a tape. I am therefore going to be giving very serious consideration to liquidating my remaining positions on Clinton (though I will probably keep a little bit on just in case the rumours of a tape turn out to be true). Indeed, the only question now is whether Hillary will be Obama’s running mate and how, if she is not, her supporters will react.

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One comment

  1. Don’t believe a single rumour about Obama. Lies are all the Clintons and the Republicans have to go against him with.

    It will not work.



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