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McCain opens up a comfortable lead over Obama

May 30, 2008

Could the ‘electability’ argument bring Hillary back from the dead?

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My new national projections (likely voters, last poll ending May 28th) are:

Hillary Clinton 46.06
John McCain 45.87

John McCain 46.93
Barack Obama 42.13

McCain seems to have opened up a comfortable lead over Obama but is essentially tied with Clinton. This raises the question of whether Hillary Clinton can somehow use the rules committee to re-open the question of the nomination. Although, I had all but written off Clinton I still felt that her chances, although small, were better than those given by either the bookies or the betting exchanges. I would still rate them at no more than 10%, but it now looks closer to 15%. In any case it is blidingly obvious that, if the Democrats do select Obama rather than Clinton, they are making a huge strategic mistake, especially since her ’50+1′ tactics, and her experience, are extremely suited to an environment where Bush’s popularity is at rock bottom and Democrats have a huge lead in party ID. Given the antipathy between Obama and Clinton, a bet on Harold Ford Jr as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee (at 50/1) might seem in order, since that would appeal to both many of Obama’s supporters and the centre at the same time.

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2 comments

  1. The best Hillary’s “electability” argument can do is delay the inevitable. Sen. Obama will win the Democratic nomination, he’ll give a speech, and the party will rally behind him.


  2. Most of the Party faithful (not all) will rally behind in the end. However, Independents are a different question.



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