McCain opens up a comfortable lead over Obama

May 30, 2008

Could the ‘electability’ argument bring Hillary back from the dead?


My new national projections (likely voters, last poll ending May 28th) are:

Hillary Clinton 46.06
John McCain 45.87

John McCain 46.93
Barack Obama 42.13

McCain seems to have opened up a comfortable lead over Obama but is essentially tied with Clinton. This raises the question of whether Hillary Clinton can somehow use the rules committee to re-open the question of the nomination. Although, I had all but written off Clinton I still felt that her chances, although small, were better than those given by either the bookies or the betting exchanges. I would still rate them at no more than 10%, but it now looks closer to 15%. In any case it is blidingly obvious that, if the Democrats do select Obama rather than Clinton, they are making a huge strategic mistake, especially since her ’50+1′ tactics, and her experience, are extremely suited to an environment where Bush’s popularity is at rock bottom and Democrats have a huge lead in party ID. Given the antipathy between Obama and Clinton, a bet on Harold Ford Jr as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee (at 50/1) might seem in order, since that would appeal to both many of Obama’s supporters and the centre at the same time.



  1. The best Hillary’s “electability” argument can do is delay the inevitable. Sen. Obama will win the Democratic nomination, he’ll give a speech, and the party will rally behind him.

  2. Most of the Party faithful (not all) will rally behind in the end. However, Independents are a different question.

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