Is is worth betting on a third party to take the White House?

May 27, 2008

Could the ‘Ron Paul bubble’ strike again?

With Barr’s victory in the Libertarian Party nomination it is interesting to consider whether the bubble that saw Ron Paul’s price hit a peak of 25 in the New Hampshire primary, could ever be repeated. Certainly, Barr doesn’t have the appeal to the antiwar fringe that Ron Paul did, and indeed his running mate Wayne Root actually donated money to Joe Lieberman, but could even a diminished coalition of paleoconservatives, libertarians and crazies move the third party betting price from 1.4 on Intrade.com to something higher? Although I am not suggesting that Barr has any chances, and a objective point of view would suggest there is more chance of Elvis being found alive than a President Barr, but given the stupidity of those who bet on Ron Paul, maybe there will be a new set of ‘greater fools’ emerging. Of course there is always the microscopic possibility that a more plausible third party bid might emerge.

What do you think? Leave your comments below.



  1. (All together, now)


  2. It is not worth betting for a third pary outright, but a third party could make an impact. The Democrats have not received more than 50% of the vote for quite some time, so if Mr. Obama is to become President, Mr. Barr will have to get a least a few votes.

  3. Just to clarify, the idea would be to bet on something and then lay it off when the price went higher. I’m obviously wouldn’t be betting on Barr so much as Barr’s supporters pushing the prices up.

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