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Why Gordon Brown is not out of the woods yet

May 26, 2008

The moment when he could have been removed seems to have passed – but will it be the first of many?

At the moment Gordon Brown seems to have dodged a bullet, as no-one has come forward to challlenge him. However, my belief is that although the Labour party seems to have a serious adversion to challenging their leaders, except when they have won three elections, I believe that there are simply too many hurdles that Brown will have to jump over to survive. This summer he wll have to naivgate the vote on the 42 days detention, put in a respectable showing in the Henley bye-election and claw back some ground in the opinion polls all while knowing that a formal challenge from any credible (or even a not so credible) candidate will probably start an avalanche that will destroy him within days, if not hours.

My view is still that the chances of Brown being forced from Number 10 before the end of the year are more than 50%. I also believe that although it is nice to see Miliband refuse to continue the fiction that the international community would somehow prefer Obama to McCain, any challenge would probably see one of the older Blairites, namely Charles Clarke or Alan Milburn in Downing Street.

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