Is it time to bet on Hillary in Oregon?

May 19, 2008

Why Betfair’s 24/1 is good value.

Betfair is currently offering the chance to be on Hillary in Oregon at odds of 29/1 (though betting against Obama at 24/1 is a more liquid market). Given my last projections have her only 6.16% behind Obama in Oregon, I believe that this is good value. Although I would put Hillary’s chances at no more than 15%, I believe that she has been gaining momentum as Democrats increasingly, understand that although she might be divisive she is far more electable than Obama. In (American) football terms she might be ‘three yards and a cloud of dust game’, as Alex Castellanos puts it, this is not a bad strategy when your are deep in your opponents territory and nursing a healthy lead.



  1. Put your money where your mouth is.

    She’s outside the margin of error in every poll. That is not 15% probability of victory.

  2. More like a 0%.

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