Reason #1: Wright has rallied the GOP Base behind McCain

May 15, 2008

TPT begins his series on why Obama will not be President.

Barack Obama seems to have dodged a bullet in terms of ‘Wrightgate’ and the Democratic nomination. I am even prepared to admit that, due to a combination of media pressure and Obama’s belated denunciation of Wright, the issue may be dead as far as independents and Democrats go (though I believe that it will cause a steady trickle of voters towards McCain and it might make African-American voters more receptive to a ticket involving Condi Rice). However, I believe that one long-term consequence of the whole business is that the Republican ‘base’ is now solidly behind John McCain. This is important because McCain needs to move back to the centre on economic policy, get back to a more humane immigration policy and be bold in his vice-presidential pick. It is also important because they are useful in getting out of the vote, even if they have been one of the reasons why the Republican party is in such dire straits. Of course, just because McCain has the opportunity it doesn’t (unfortunately) mean that he is going to use it, but when he does start to make some bold gestures, the Republican equivalent of Daily Kos will be willing to sit on their hands.



  1. I don’t know… if the GOP was rallying behind McCain (or behind the party in general), then there is no way they would’ve lost the special elections in IL-14, LA-6, and LA-1. All three districts are Republican, yet voted for the Democrat. (Rev. Wright was even featured prominently in the last two, but it didn’t about to any success.)

    This can only mean one thing: the GOP is fractured and Rev. Wright isn’t a big enough issue to unite the party behind THEMSELVES.

    I think that the GOP is more of a flag for the party to unite behind than their candidate, John McCain. If they can’t even hang on to their own districts, then I don’t think they’ll hold on to the presidency.

  2. I cannot speak for IL or LA, but MS-1, all politics is local. When the Republicans held on to their special election seat in North West Ohio last fall, the local candidates were more important than the national picture. Special elections need to be taken with a grain salt.

  3. Please let us know how your Intrade funds are distributed. It is getting hard to see the worth of your predictions. Clinton longs? Is the market really so insane that it’s basically 60/40 in favor of Obama?

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