Is Obama becoming less electable as the campaign goes on?

May 14, 2008

Evidence that Obamamania is coming to an end

This chart of my filtered polling data from early February to mid June clearly demonstrates that Barack Obama’s popularity, relative to that of Hillary Clinton, has fallen. In early February there was a clear gap between Clinton-McCain and Obama-McCain, peaking at a whopping 15.93% on February 16th (a McCain lead of 9.03% over Clinton compared with an Obama lead of 4.59). However, by February 22nd the relative gap had fallen to 0.8%, turning negative for the first time on the 30th. From then on both Clinton and Obama pretty moved in lockstep, although there were a few blips. However, since April 27th Clinton has always outperformed Obama relative to McCain. Given that Samplemiser has been pretty accurate in predicting the primaries, my view is that Obama’s bubble has been gradually bursting – though it is probably too late for Hillary Clinton.



  1. While it true that Mr. Obama is a little less electable than he was two and three weeks ago, I still think Mrs. Clinton would be even less electable in November. The Super Delegates see the writing on the wall and are thus lining behind Mr. Obama in an effort to stop Mrs. Clinton.

  2. I agree. The GOP had 1,200 pages of opposition-research and 16 years of negative press on the woman. Furthermore, she offered Republicans the best chance they would get to reclaim the House.

    Besides, if Bill got caught at anytime between now and November, it would’ve been “goodnight” for the Democrats (and let’s face it, those’re aren’t good odds for the party).

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