Hillary’s price collapsing on Intrade.com

May 7, 2008

…does she have a path to the nomination?

Hillary’s price is collapsing on Intrade.com and has now fallen into single figures. Few doubt that, if she wanted to, Clinton could string this out a few more weeks. However, there is the question of whether she can actually win the thing. I believe that the first thing that she has to do is to immediately dispell the rumors that she is going to either drop out or run a Mike Huckabee style ‘paper’ campaign. To do this she will have to go negative against Obama and explicitly rule out any sort of deal regarding the vice-presidency. Hillary then has to keep reiterating that she can still win in the popular vote. Clinton then needs to keep the focus on healthcare, education and national defence, pushing her credentials and attacking Obama’s. If she can win large majorities in Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico she can use the popular vote argument to emphasise her credentials. I was maybe too optimistic about her chances, but I believe that she has a 33% shot if she is willing to take the risks involved in gaining the nomination.



  1. Short of the US annexing Mexico (or, God forbid, a national tragedy), I don’t think Hillary has any chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

    It’s game over. Barack won.

  2. Give it up, she’s lost. More like 3.3 % chance, not 33%.

  3. Hillary doesn’t have anywhere near a 33% chance of winning the nomination. Her chance is only slightly better than 0, and that’s only because she would be the logical choice if something tragic were to happen to Obama.

    At this point, Hillary needs to get out of the race, while saving face and playing the good soldier role. She will quit graciously, and support the Democratic nominee, as soon as the primaries are over.

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