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Final thoughts on North Carolina and Indiana

May 7, 2008

TPT gives his final thoughts on NC and IN

1. Although this is being portrayed as a victory for Obama this is more like a score draw, and even that is due to the expectations game. Obama failed to carry a state adjacent to Illinois and did worse in North Carolina than one would have expected given the demographics of the state. A fortnight ago this would have been regarded as a plus for Hillary.

2. However, given the press reaction and the delegate math of the contest I would give Hillary only a 30% chance of being the nominee.

3. If there aren’t any last minute surprises it was a good betting night for me with my £100 bet on Hillary beating the spread in North Carolina coming through (by the skin of my teeth) and only a £7 loss on a 14/1 flutter on Obama in Indiana.

5. My predictions were pretty much on the money in Indiana, although they didn’t do so well in North Carolina.

6. McCain’s 75% is being interpreted as a lack of confidence in him by Republican voters, but in reality both Kerry in 2004 and Bush in 2000 did worse after they had formally secured the nomination so that means nothing.

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One comment

  1. Last night was a crushing victory for Obama no matter how you dice it. After 8 weeks of the worst news to rock his campaign (including a loss in PA), Obama scored a massive win in NC compared to Hillary’s “Rush Limbaugh” win in IN. He is now stronger than he was before the PA primaries for several reasons:

    1. There are less states for Hillary to continue her fight in.

    2. Obama has shown that he can make inroads with whites and Catholics, robbing Hillary of a major talking-point.

    3. Hillary’s gas-tax holiday played well into Obama’s pledges to reform Washington politics.

    4. Obama has clinched the delegate and popular vote, which even some of Hillary’s top backers have admitted will cost her their support.

    6. Hillary’s only chance of winning the nomination now hinge on Obama making a HUGE blunder, which is not a good enough argument to keep her own superdelegates from defecting.



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