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Why Obama will NOT win the Presidency – even if he wins the nomination

May 6, 2008

Ten Reasons why there won’t be a President Obama any time soon

Over the next ten days I am going to write a series of articles detailing why Barack Obama can’t beat John McCain. Although I will look at each factor in detail, for now I will just list them.

1. Jeremiah Wright means that, whatever McCain does, the Republican base will ultimately be behind him. This will allow McCain to move to the centre.

2. Barack Obama’s antiwar stance will make the election about foreign policy rather than the economy. There is clear evidence that people are willing to listen to someone who can put forward a consistent plan for seeing Iraq through to victory. According to the polls, more people trust McCain than Obama on Iraq.

3. Obama’s reliance on students and 18-24 voters who tend to be less reliable is risky to say the least. George McGovern found out the hard way that they can change their minds between the Spring and November.

4. John McCain’s role as a moderate Republican set against Obama’s extremely liberal (in Amercian terms) voting record.

5. Although Hillary will support Obama many of her surrogates will not, so that Hillary could make a comeback in 2012.

6. There is a serious question mark about Obama’s competence on foreign policy and his judgement in choosing such advisors/mentors as Samantha Power and Jeremiah Wright.

7. Obama’s lack of experience will contrasts embarrassingly with McCain’s. This didn’t matter so much among Democrats, but it will play poorly with moderates, independents and weak Republicans.

8. The Latino-American vote will go to McCain (or at least break even). This is not on some assumption, as had been suggested, that Latino voters are somehow biased but simply a recognition that McCain carried 75% of the Latino vote in his home state. Latino-American voters have been steadily losing their automatic identification with the Democrats and becoming more like typical voters.

9. Obama can’t help being perceived as slightly wimpish and elitist. This is unfair but, as John Kerry in 2004 and Michael Dukakis in 1988 found out, such things unfortunately matter.

10. George W Bush will not be a candidate.

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23 comments

  1. I hope you like crow!


  2. If Hillary takes Indiana with a commanding lead and just barely loses North Carolina, the superdelegates need to start defecting from Camp Obama and join Camp Clinton.

    The Clintonista Post’s prediction for tonight: Obama Campaign = the Red Star Line

    See what the winning side looks like at http://clintonistapost.wordpress.com


  3. Ten Reasons why ‘The Political Tipster’ didn’t look into detail

    1. The Republicans can say whatever they want about Jeremiah Wright, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’d be like fighting fire with gasoline. The Religious Right has its their own “Wrights,” (John Hagee is a BIG one of them in the McCain camp), and if the Republicans try to make this a contest over outrageous religious statements, the Republicans and kiss the Independent vote goodnight and goodbye.

    2. Barack Obama doesn’t plan on making this election about foreign policy, but he expects McCain will. If Hillary was the nominee, she’d have a tough time defending her vote for the war just as John Kerry did in ’04. Obama can defend his position better than anyone of the three: Iraq was a mistake from the beginning. That’s an argument he can win with or without oil at $200 a barrel.
    3. Sen. Obama is so adored by America’s young voters that it’s creating a pop-art phenomenon bordering on a cult of personality. People are literally getting tattoos of his face. I doubt McCain is going to inspire anything close to that.

    4. John McCain’s role as a moderate is a lose-lose formula for two reasons. One: Republicans don’t like politicians that vote contrary to what the RNC says. Two: McCain has been forced to pander to the neocons and ultra-conservatives because it was the only was he could get the nomination. Conclusion: McCain is a panderer, and it’s going to get him nowhere.

    5. Unless Hillary wants to get kicked-out of the Democratic Party, she’s going to do everything in her power to make sure her supporters back Obama. Aside from a few racists who were probably not going to vote for him anyway, I think there’s going to be little threat posed by Hillary’s camp SIX MONTHS from now. (After all, there was a big concern that Howard Dean’s supporters wouldn’t vote Democrat in ’04 once Kerry secured the nomination, and we saw how empty that threat was.)
    6. [Insert photo of McCain hugging Bush in ’04]

    7. [Keating Five Scandal, attached photo, and the Bob Dole Campaign. SPECIAL NOTE: McCain’s age.]

    8. You gotta be kidding me… after all the GOP has done against the Latino community the past decade? What’s your next prediction? McCain winning the gay-vote?

    9. A fatherless African-American vs. a White Anglo-Saxon Protestant Republican Senator? GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!

    10. McCain will still has an ‘R’ next to his name.


  4. Your reasons are very sensible. Look at Giacomo’s #8. I am gay, and I can tell you that there are plenty of gay male Republicans. (I am not one.) Democrats, of which I am one, have all these “constituencies” but any one of them can be split apart when it comes to issues like war, economy, experience. No one remembers the Keating Savings and Loan scandal except for political junkies and it won’t be held against McCain. It never has been. McCain looks clean, experienced, ready to be Pres. and he isn’t enough like Bush to be completely tarred by him. Obama just does not look that good next to him, but Hillary does, and can get the cross-over. Young voters are unreliable, but old people always vote. And there are still more of them.


  5. Giacomo=Uninformed.

    1. Of course the right has their religious zealots. Independents (like myself) realize this, as most the extreme religious people lean right. The only difference is that the left can’t go after the right on this issue and wouldn’t fair well if they did. Moral values voters trend Republican and I don’t think that will change, no matter how right wing Jeremiah Wrights are involved.

    2. Barack Obama can go out against McCain and say that the war was a mistake from the beginning, but that doesn’t change the fact that it happened. Clinton’s vote for the war will not be an issue; her plan will. If foreign policy is an issue and Obama’s plan for Iraq isn’t as solid as McCain’s, independents won’t go for it.

    3. Pop culture phenom he is, Barack Obama can’t rely on the youth vote to win an election. No smart candidate ever will. Research any election from 1972-2004 and you will see that the youth vote, although expected to be large, was overtly disappointing over expectations.

    4. I will agree that Republicans don’t generally go against the RNC…but that doesn’t matter to INDEPENDENTS, which are a much larger party. His stance as a well respected moderate isn’t going to change unless the Democrats can paint him as a flip flopper. Unfortunately Karl Rove isn’t working for the DNC so that won’t be happening.

    5. Any member of the Clinton family will NEVER NEVER NEVER (and shall I repeat) NEVER be kicked out of the Democratic Party. To any democrat that was not one before last year, they are very VERY HIGHLY respected people. Hillary may throw her support behind Obama, but she’s not going to campaign for him. She doesn’t have to. If she sits back, does nothing, and Obama loses in November she will have a clear path to 2012 and would not have to do a damn thing to ensure his loss. You’re also forgetting a BIG point: compare the amount of people behind Hillary and the Clintons to the people behind Howard Dean. If you don’t notice a difference in nomenclature, you’re screwed. Hillary’s people are MUCH MUCH more staked in this than Dean’s were, and will continue to be after today.

    6. (George W. Bush was John McCain’s president, not his pastor that he listened to Sunday after Sunday.) You’re point might resonate among democrats, but it won’t among independents.

    7. See Ronald Reagan. He was old as hell, and still won in a time where there was scandal and a tough economy. Age SHOULD be a factor in this election, but it won’t be when you compare which is more important. EXPERIENCE always trumps YOUTH.

    8. Florida Latinos (and Latinos generally) tend to vote Republican. Yet again, a 5 minute google search could help you immensely.

    9. This is completely opinion and, if you ask me, elitist is not something that should be said about either McCain or Obama. The big difference here is WHIMPISH: democrat who has never fought or NATIONALLY RENOWNED WAR HERO. GOOD LUCK trying to make Obama look better than McCain.

    10. Yeah, he will have an R. So did George W. Bush in 2000 & 2004. And Bush in ’88. And Reagan in ’80 & ’84. And Nixon in ’68 and ’72. Guess what? They all won.


  6. Tim=premature. (You really missed the mark on the undecideds in NC, Tiny Tim!)

    1. Moral values voters started drifting more towards the Democrats in 2006 than at any time since Jimmy Carter in 1976 (he was a born-again Evangelical, you know). Also, going against the Religious Right for their “zealots”, as you put it, who blame Hurricane Katrina on gays and think interracial dating should be outlawed… no, that won’t win elections, but it will show how hypocritical they are.

    2. McCain’s plan is for us to stay in Iraq for “maybe 100 [years]. That would be fine by me.” Good luck trying to get a +70 year old man to win an eleciton on the campaign that everyone’s children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren should fight and die there.

    3. I am a professor of Machiavellian political psychology who wrote my senior thesis on presidential campaigning from 1960-2004. No, you can’t rely on young voters to win the US Presidency… however, they were enough for Obama to beat Hillary Clinton in the primaries. HILLARY CLINTON! That’s right, Obama beat the Republicans to the punch!… because of young voters.

    4. Independents are a much larger force than Republicans, this is true… BECAUSE REPUBLICANS ARE LEAVING THE GOP! Also, if you think that the DNC won’t go after McCain for flip-flopping after what Rove did to Kerry in 2004, then I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you.

    5. I stand by what I said: if Hillary wants a future in this party, she’s going to do whatever she can to make Sen. Obama the next president… because he’s going to win anyway. If she doesn’t, she’s probably gonna quit the senate in 2012, divorce Bill, and disappear from the political arena.

    6. George W. Bush is the most unpopular president in history. If you think that matters more to Independents than a senator’s ex-pastor, then I’d say you’re a card-carrying member of the GOP.

    7. Ronald Reagan wasn’t running for president against the most charismatic and inspirational presidential candidate in a generation. The last Republican to do that was Richard Nixon, and we all know how that went: “EXPERIENCE COUNTS” was his losing slogan.

    8. [5 minute google search ‘Election 2006 CNN exit polls’] “VOTE BY RACE, LATINO: 69%-30%, Democrats.”

    9. … You sound just like one of those Reagan Republicans who couldn’t believe a self-admitted draft-dogger like Clinton could beat a war hero. Guess what… he did… TWICE. (Source: The Empire Strikes Back, “Wars not make one great.” – Yoda)

    10. CORRECTION: None of the people you mentioned had an ‘R’ after their name after George W. Bush became the most unpopular president in history. 😉


  7. I hope Obama doesn’t win. However-the problem I see is for those who don’t like Obama, McCain does not inspire us to vote. Obama’s followers are inspired by him. McCain’s followers are “stuck” with McCain for lack of anybody else. That’s why I think Obama has a bigger chance of winning than McCain.


  8. I’d like to know why it is people use the word “racist” when regarding Obama…I mean, he’s not black…he’s PART African American, PART Native American Indian and PART white. If there are those who are being “racist” we are only being racist toward ourselves. Now, I will not be voting for him because he’s black but I will be voting for NO ONE! There isn’t anyone qualified enough on that panel to lead the White House and do it with honesty, integrity and equally…no one except for Christ Jesus himself and he’s not coming back anytime soon I don’t think. BTW, who really cares who becomes President, right? I don’t believe the lot of them.


  9. Sen. Obama’s father was African. His mother was a white-American woman (and quite an incredible woman, I might add).

    Sen. Barack Obama is 100% African-American. The fact that his mother was a white woman who was born in America makes him no-less African American than Frederick Douglas.

    The fact that racism exists in this country is nothing short of hypocritical in my opinion, but the fact remains that racism does exist very much in this coutnry, and it will continue to show its ugly head throughout this campaign.


  10. for the record. Obama is mixed race, not 100% anything. His biological father was Kenyan also a complete stranger that was not present in his life past 2. His biological mother was a white woman from Kansas, which means she was about as white as this country can make you. She and her family raised Obama. So he is an American of both African and European descent. Frederick Douglas was not raised by white people. He and Obama had very very different lives. If you could imagine what is feels like being raised by people whose skin color is nothing like yours, when all your friends think you are adopted because no one can figure out how you and your mother could be even related to eachother, you might have a clue as to what kind of heritage Obama has.
    My feelings on this election are simple. We couldnt get a white man from the north elected president in my lifetime, now we are going to give a shot at someone from the North who is also a person of color? No doubt that Obama will lose, and I am not in favor of Hillary at all either. I think the Dems should have taken Al Gore into a room, and Tony Soprano style put a gun to his head and make him run for prez, now that would have been a slam dunk win.
    Now we are stuck with McCain as a president, we can only hope he returns to his maverick style once in office.


  11. Call me optimistic, but I think Obama will lose to McCain because of his lack of experience and his policy positions, not because of his skin colour.


  12. I won’t call you optimistic, Tipster, but I do think you’re a we bit quixotic. Bush is the most unpopular president in history. His administration is going to decide this election more than anything else.


  13. I don’t know who will be the next president, but I figure the odds are lengthening for Obama.

    Mc Cain has come from a position of no hoper to nearing the cusp of winning. Look at the bookmakers odds.
    Now Barack’s skin color will influence people both for and against and also the propanda starting up about his Muslim beliefs etc.

    To me it’s a more open race than they’ll have you believe.

    It depends now which party puts out the best proganda war. The mainstream public view and opposition to Liberal policies on gays, muslims, illegal immigrants, the war on terror and Iraq are the weak points for Obama. The fact he’s marketed as “black” may work well for him or against him – it remains to be seen but a heck of a gamble.

    Mc Cain it’s his age and his lack of direction, and the fact that he is Bush’s replacement.


  14. WOW ITS 4 DAYS BEFORE ELECTION AND LOOK AT WHERE OBAMA IS!!

    FUNNY!!


  15. The Right always thinks they are Right. Even when they’re dead wrong.

    😉


  16. Wow….what a day!


  17. lol, he won


  18. pwnt


  19. Lmao! Ha! Ha! He Won!

    Obama won!

    That’s right!!!!

    Look who’s the loser now!


  20. He won’t win eh? LOL


  21. Would you like some ketchup with those 10 reasons. Might help them go down better.


  22. Lol. I’d be willing to bet people won’t be taking your betting tips any more after this one!


  23. 10 reasons why obama won’t win… but here it is 2009, and we’re left wondering if you can provide just ONE reason why anyone should value your opinion.



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