Obama leads by 8.40% in North Carolina

May 6, 2008

Obama looks to miss the spread

Adding the latest polls to the collection of North Carolina polls, I’ve come up with the following projections.

Barack Obama 49.27
Hillary Clinton 40.87

Given that, as I have already stated, the implicit spread is 10%, Obama looks likely to miss the cut off point. This might be an actual victory for Obama but it will be a moral victory for Hillary Clinton.



  1. The undecideds are probably gonna break Obama’s way. (Remember: they were favoring him going into this).

    I don’t think Hillary closed any deal with them.

  2. NOnsense unless hillary wins North Carolina her campaign is over. The supers will start going to Obama since this pretty much finishes up the primary

  3. Undecideds in every primary leading up to North Carolina have OVERWHELMINGLY gone in support of Hillary Clinton, Giacomo. Why would it be any different in North Carolina?

    I see the Bradley Effect straight on here…Hillary may lose, but not by 8-9%. Anything less than a 5% victory for Obama and the Clinton camp will be doing the exact same thing to him that the Obama camp were doing to her after Pennsylvania….only this time, there wasn’t a 6 week campaign stretch.

    If Obama doesn’t win by at least 10 percentage points, this is going straight to the convention. Even if Hillary loses West Virginia (definitely not going to happen…she may break 70-30 there), Oregon (likely), South Dakota (likely), Montana (likely) and Puerto Rico (see West Virginia), a close loss in North Carolina means we’ll see her in Denver in August. Bank on it.

  4. CNN projected Barack Obama as the winner of NC the second the polls closed and exit polls found that he narrowly carried undecided voters who made their decision in the days before May 6.

    Nice talking to you, Tim. I look forward to refuting your other comments once the they call Indiana.

    P.S. “Unless hillary wins North Carolina her campaign is over.” – Tim

  5. Time to admit you were all wet, Tim.

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