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Final Projection: Clinton leads by 9.34%

April 22, 2008

Hillary ahead but she is projected to land inside the spread

There were three polls published today which diminishes the importance of the PPP poll.

Hillary Clinton 51.18
Barack Obama 41.84

The contest certainly has been the most volatile I’ve ever seen. The first poll that I included was on February 12 and it had a 16 point Clinton lead (reduced to a 15.33 margin in my projections). The largest Clinton lead was 19.13% on March 8th and the lowest was 0.56% on April 15th (my projection record has never had Obama ahead).

If you are interested in the views of other websites, the excellent Election Projection has a roundup.

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One comment

  1. Perhaps one of the questions is: how many Republican, Independents and Conservative will vote in PA. Supposedly, they will back Mrs. Clinton, but none of these groups are monolithic. I am physically in western PA right now and Mr. Obama has a strong ground game, but Mrs. Clinton should still win by more than 10 points which won’t be enough anyway to convince the Super Delegates to back her.

    One Conservative Democrat told me way back that he was going to vote for Mr. Obama. After Mr. Obama’s first gaff, he told me he would vote for neither. After Mr. Obama’s second gaff, he told me he would switch to Mrs. Clinton.

    I am neither a Democrat, nor a resident of PA, but both camp have call me several times. There is never a dull moment.



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