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Betting markets remain steady as polls open in Pennsylvania

April 22, 2008

Punters still overwhelmingly favour Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination

The betting markets seem to be realtively stable as the polls open in Pennsylvania, with little movement either way. They still overwhelmingly expect Hillary Clinton to win but they don’t think that a victory in Pennsylvania will do anything for her chances of winning the nomination. Assuming that a loss in the Keystone state will end her campaign (which I think everyone can agree on) the implied probabiliy of victory in PA leading to the nomination is (15.3/92.7) = 16.40%. Of course it it all depends on the margin of her victory but if she manages to beat the spread Hillary should be the favourite.

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