h1

Disinformation, last gasp or the truth?

April 21, 2008

What are we to make of Drudge’s rumours of a 11% Clinton lead?

The lastest runour flashing around the internet is that Hillary Clinton’s internal polling is suggesting that she had a eleven point lead over Obama. If this is true (in the sense that it really is coming from her staff) this is rather intriguing. Firstly, it suggests that she is really unconcerned about the expectations game. It also suggests that she believes that the appearance of momentum is far more important, even it if loses her the last minute sympathy vote. Personally, I think that she is trying to convince voters that a vote for her will actually win her the nomination rather than delaying the coronation of Obama by a week or two. Maybe, she is really going to fight this all the way to the convention. In any case I have always ignored internal polling, because of its high selectivity (candidates rarely publish bad results) and the fact that most polling companies are usually willing to give polling for a client a nudge to ensure that it doesn’t produce news which is too bad. I would advise punters to discount such talk.

Advertisements

One comment

  1. We just won’t know until the votes are counted. Too many Republicans have done a party switch to vote in the Democratic primary in PA (and NC) and who knows what they will do. Each side thinks they will vote for the other. (I support Clinton and I think the GOPs will vote for Obama, but I read the opposite everywhere). I also don’t trust internal polls. But all of the polling has been off this year.



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: