Obama within 2.28% of Clinton in PA

April 18, 2008

Hillary is in trouble

Adding the latest version of the Zogby tracking poll to my collection produces the following projections:

Hillary Clinton 46.27
Barack Obama 43.99

As in the last post I’m still going to stick with my prediction of an eventual 11.2% Clinton victory. However, as it is only a few days away from the actual election, I won’t be able to use the excuse that my polling projections only predict what will have if the election were today. The only thing I could say is that the intensity of this campaign has increased the chance of those being polled lying in a systemic fashion. This means that the margin of error of any projections will be far greater than the 3% implied by Samplemiser.

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One comment

  1. If the undecideds start breaking for Obama, it’ll be “Goodnight” for Hillary.

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