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Hillary leads in PA by only 0.25%

April 16, 2008

Hillary’s lead drops

Adding the latest flurry of polls to my collection produces the following projections:

Hillary Clinton 44.21
Barack Obama 43.96

So what is my take on these gyrating polling averages? I believe that voters are vacilating between voting with their heads to end this contest or voting with their hearts for Clinton. I also believe that many voters are simply not being straight with the pollsters. With less than a week to go I’m still going to stick with my prediction of an eventual 11.2% Clinton victory (with a 45% chance of a Clinton margin greater than 12%).

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One comment

  1. Tipster,

    Could this blip in the polls be due to ‘Bittergate’ going absolutely nowhere? Or a negative backlash to Hillary driving the gaffe to the ground? Or blowback from her scorchingly anti-Obama ad? Or the recent Washington Post-ABC News poll which found voters so dissatisfied with Hillary that her unfavorable rating is borderline unelectable? Or Obama high electability ratings in that said poll? Or Sen. Casey and Sen. Obama making inroads with Catholics? Or PA voters breaking for Obama in the end? Or Democrats just wanting this primary over already?

    I’d say “everything on the menu.” Stick by your call, Tipster. You might be one of the first (and few) pundits to correctly call the contest in PA.



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