Hillary Clinton leads by 10.72% in Pennsylvania

April 15, 2008

Hillary has a very solid lead

Adding the latest flurry of polls to my collection produces the following projections:

Hillary Clinton 51.71
Barack Obama 40.99

Although the recent polls showing Hillart with a lead of nearly 20% were outliers, so to were those that showed her with a very small lead. Hillary really needs to get the lead up into the 14-15% range to really devastate Obama but my bet on her getting more than 12% is looking better and better all the time (and of course she looks set to clear the 10% hurdle).

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  1. Even a 10-point victory will only net her a handful of delegates. If Hillary wants to stay in this race, she needs a landslide. The most she can hope for is a hiccup.

  2. P.S. The latest chatter on cyberspace is that the “bitter” gaffe has fizzled out. Both Slate and Politico have reported this in light of Gallup, Rasmussen, and Quinnipiac polls taken after the incident.

    Coupled with a one-two counterpunch from Obama’s staffers and a solid performance on CNN’s religious forum, the case could be made that Obama is more-than-capable of holding his own when under siege from all sides of the aisle. It’s also likely that Hillary’s argument of media-bias is in the toilet after the Wright fiasco and “bitter” gaffe dominated so much coverage these past weeks.

    However, what remains to be seen is whether Hillary will overplay her hand. (The New Republic had a very interesting article on this: http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/04/14/how-you-overplay-pocket-aces.aspx) It was smart for Randell to downplay the significance of Obama’s remarks, but this was after Clinton got booed at a rally for alluding to the slip. Her campaign now has a commercial running throughout the state focusing solely on Obama’s comments: the first all-out negative ad of the Democratic campaign.

    Should this ad backfire in this crucial last week before Election Day, Hillary’s hopes for the lion’s share of PA’s delegates, and the Democratic nomination, could be toast.

    Truth be told, PA’s fate is still up in the air.

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