Markets still think Hillary is more electable than Obama

April 5, 2008

The ‘smart money’ is still more convinced by Clinton’s electability.

Comparing the prices on intrade.com for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to be both president and nominee continues to throw up some interesting results (as before all prices are last traded prices):

Hillary Clinton: 8.9 / 13.7 = 64.96% chance of being elected if nominated.

Barack Obama: 50.4 / 85.4 = 59.02% chance of being elected if nominated.

Therefore the betting markets seem to be more positive about Clinton’s chances than those of Barack Obama. Personally, I still believe that Obama has about a 10% chance of beating McCain (maybe more if he makes a smart VP choice and McCain picks badly) while Hillary Clinton ticket has about 40% chance of beating the Senator from Arizona after ‘snipergate’ and Carville’s antics. This is because of many reaons, such as; experience, connections with blue-collar voters, experience (snipergate nothwistanding) and foreign policy stance.



  1. Why does this surprise people? It seems so logical to me.

  2. The latest NY Times/CBS poll shows Obama with a 56%-32% lead over Clinton over who is more likely to beat McCain in November.

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