Markets keep moving to Obama

April 4, 2008

Is an Obama victory over Clinton Inevitable?


The Intrade markets are clearly moving heavily to Obama raising the question of whether the end is nigh for Hillary Clinton. Clearly, Hillary is in severe trouble and if she comes out of Pennsylvania with anything other than a ten point victory she is finished. However, there is just over a fortnight for her to turn things around, and she was in a similar position before Texas and Ohio. Personally, I would put her chances at around 35%. Bear in mind, people may be reluctant to admit to pollsters that Wrightgate made them less likely to vote for Obama, creating a lot of ‘silent’ support for Hillary.



  1. Don’t bet on it!
    I believe a significant negative news event about
    Barack Obama will surface in the next few months.

  2. Mhm, and whose tea-leaves did you read that in?

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