Detailed Projections: McCain leads both Obama and Clinton in PA

April 3, 2008

TPT moves on to Pennsylvania


The next key state that I’m going to look at is Pennsylvania.: My projections for the (fictional) home of Rocky Balboa are:

John McCain 45.24
Barack Obama 43.42

John McCain 46.83
Hillary Clinton 43.18

This state has generally voted with either the winning party in the electoral college, or in the popular vote. However, this broke down in 2004. Looking at the Democrat-Republican margins for the state elections from 1968 onwards and comparing them with national popular vote margins produces the following equation: y = 0.844x + 0.033 (with an R2 of 0.926).This means that the Pennsylvania vote margin has a stronger correlation with the national vote margin than Missouri, but is less sensitive and has a weak bias (3.3%) towards the Democrats (Source: David Leip’s US Elections Atlas).


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