h1

Detailed Projections: McCain leads both Obama and Clinton in PA

April 3, 2008

TPT moves on to Pennsylvania

 photo_us_pa_78_32402_7026.jpg

The next key state that I’m going to look at is Pennsylvania.: My projections for the (fictional) home of Rocky Balboa are:

John McCain 45.24
Barack Obama 43.42

John McCain 46.83
Hillary Clinton 43.18

This state has generally voted with either the winning party in the electoral college, or in the popular vote. However, this broke down in 2004. Looking at the Democrat-Republican margins for the state elections from 1968 onwards and comparing them with national popular vote margins produces the following equation: y = 0.844x + 0.033 (with an R2 of 0.926).This means that the Pennsylvania vote margin has a stronger correlation with the national vote margin than Missouri, but is less sensitive and has a weak bias (3.3%) towards the Democrats (Source: David Leip’s US Elections Atlas).

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: