Clinton’s lead in PA is a mere 0.78%

April 2, 2008

Clinton’s back is up against the wall.


After adding the Quinnipac and PPP Pennsylvania polls, I’ve come up with the following projections.

Hillary Clinton 44.78
Barack Obama 44.01

The gap is now next to nothing. Hillary’s supporters will of course point out that all of this movement is due to the PPP poll, which seems to be an outlier. However, a tiny victory by Hillary Clinton is simply not enough for her. It seems inevitable that unless she can pull a pigeon out of a hat the contest will be over on the 22nd. As I said in my last post, Hillary Clinton needs to explicitly rule out any idea of a dream ticket and directly confront Obama on the issues, though she must keep her blows above the belt. At the very least she has to camp out in Pennsylvania and focus on retail campaigning. If she can’t (or won’t) do this her chances are very low. All in all, her chances are about 35%.



  1. While I agree that Sen. Clinton will rule out a dream ticket and confront Obama more directly these next weeks, I have no doubt that she will deliver her blows beneath the belt.

    The last candidate to lose a Pennsylvania race kicking and screaming was Rick Santorum in 2006. He accused his opponents of being traitors, terrorists, perverts, hell-bound, pedophiles, bestial, and (my personal favorite) bad Christians. So far, Sen. Obama has been accused by agents of the Clinton campaign of not being black enough, of being too black, of being just black enough to be unelectable, of being where is solely because he was black, of being where he is solely because he’s a male, of being sexist, or being traitorous, of being a Muslim, of being a terrorist, of being a sleeper agent for Al Qaeda, and don’t even get me started of the things they’ve said about his ex-pastor.

    During these last several weeks when Hillary has her back to the wall, expect to hear a lot more smear about Sen. Obama, Rev. Wright, and American patriotism. However, even a picture of Sen. Casey superimposed with Osama Bin Laden and mushroom clouds wasn’t enough to save Santorum. In a nutshell, negative campaigning won’t win a race in PA. Sen. Obama is the underdog and remains and underdog in this race, and that’s so ironic about this contest: underdogs are most likely to win in PA.

  2. Clinton and her supporters have consistently hit below the belt… don’t expect that to stop now that her lead is diminishing. And there is not a tremendous difference on “issues” for her to confront Obama on either, so she’s gotta make him look bad knowing he won’t return the favor.


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