Detailed Projections: McCain leads Obama and Clinton in MO

March 31, 2008

TPT begins his analysis of the Show-me state


I have decided to start detailed projections for some key states, starting with Missouri. There is only one recent poll that surveys likely voters so there isn’t much to go on, but for the sake of starting somewhere I’ll kick off with it.

John McCain 50
Hillary Clinton 41

John McCain 53
Barack Obama 38

Missouri is the ultimate bell-weather state in that it has voted for the winning candidate (in the electoral college that is) since 1956). Looking at the Democrat-Republican margins for the state elections from 1968 onwards and comparing them with national popular vote margins produces the following equation: y = 1.023x – 0.0006 (with an R2 of 0.913).This means that the Missouri vote margin very closely follows the national vote margin, with a infinitesimal bias (0.06%) towards the Republicans (corrected figures come from David Leip’s US Elections Atlas).


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