Crude State-by-State Projections

March 29, 2008

McCain still leads both Clinton and Obama


I have updated my crude projections based on the last five polls (or less – depending on availibility) rolling averages of state head-to-head between Obama/McCain and Clinton/McCain. As I keep re-iterating, these averages still include data from 2007, give no weighting to size and will naturally favour the Democrats since they include polls of registered voters and all adults. The electoral college results are (gains from 2004 are in brackets):

John McCain 278 (PA)
Barack Obama 260 (CO, IA, ND, NM, NV)

John McCain 304 (OR, PA, WI, WA)
Hillary Clinton 234 (AR, OH, WV)

(in the case of Clinton/McCain New Hamsphire is still a tie)

Nothing much seems to have changed, except that Hillary Clinton is no longer projected to win Missouri.


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