Crude State-by-State Projections

March 22, 2008

McCain leads against both Clinton and Obama.


I have updated my crude projections based on the last five polls (or less – depending on availibility) rolling averages of state head-to-head between Obama/McCain and Clinton/McCain. As I stated previously, these averages include data from 2007, give no weighting to size and will naturally favour the Democrats since they include polls of registered voters and all adults. The electoral college results are (gains from 2004 are in brackets):

John McCain 282 (PA, NH)
Barack Obama 256 (CO, IA, ND, NM, NV)

John McCain 293 (OR, PA, WI, WA)
Hillary Clinton 241 (AR, MO, OH, WV)

(in the case of Clinton/McCain New Hamsphire is a tie)

This seems to signify a shift to John McCain from both the Democrats. Although these are very early and crude figures, I think we will definitely see these figures get worse for the Democrats, especially Obama.



  1. I doubt a state as anti-war as PA would vote for McCain unless the Dems had Hillary on the ticket.

    Even if Obama fails to carry the state in the primaries, there are going to be too many anti-war Republicans and Independents registered as Democrats for McCain to work with.

    I expect the 2008 Election to play just as 2000 and 2004 did in the Commonwealth of PA: yet another disappointment for the Republicans. (Oh, and I see Obama carrying VA).

  2. Well my new and updated numbers which uses Survey USA, Rasmussen polls and RCP averages for PA, FL, OH has McCain winning in both but by different margins. This Wright thing has seen Obama’s numbers collapse Two weeks ago I had McCain winning by the around the same margin you have but now McCain beats Obama 311 to 215 with Massachusetts’s 12 tied.

    In my map Obama picks up CO, NM, NV, ND, VA, IA from Kerry’s 04 Map

    McCain picks up PA, MI, MN, NJ, NH from Bush’s 04 Map.

    Clinton on the other for the first time since I started tracking the State by State numbers this year performs better than Obama. She has seen a pretty large increase in her numbers. McCain only beats Clinton 284 to 241 with Virgina’s 13 Tied.

    Clinton in my map picks up AR, WV, OH from the 04 Map

    McCain picks up MI, NH, PA from the 04 Map

  3. It is interesting that Mr. Obama appears to win many western states that Mrs. Clinton does not win. We will see if the numbers hold.

  4. Many of the mountain states are libertarian and don’t like breeches in their privacy due to the Patriot Act and Gonzales’ run as attorney general. Dems have also benefited in the west due to the of Hispanic voters as well as the GOP’s hard-line against immigration, putting states like Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado back into play.

    However, it is important to note that many of these states are attainable to only one Democrat, Sen. Barack Obama. I attribute this to the “Hillary factor,” namely, how she turns away Independents, Republicans, and some Democrats due to her negative campaign, personal baggage, and legacy. I remain convinced that most of her popularity thus-far has been due to name recognition alone and name recognition alone. Take Arkansas for example. Now that the GOP has their candidate, her lead in the race has vanished: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/arkansas_2008_presidential_election.

    I actually think the Democratic primaries tell an interesting narrative about how the Eleciton has the potential to play out: Hillary will hold on to some blue states while Obama dips into long-standing Republican safe-spots. The disadvantage this poses to Hillary is that she doesn’t bring anything new to the table, and actually stands the risk of losing moderate states like PA and the mid-west. Should she get the nominee, short of gas spiking to $6 a gallon, I think her electoral map will look much like Mike Dukakis’ in 1988 while Obama’s would look more like a game-winning strategy from ’04.

    Finally, I can’t stress how important it is to not be so premature with this election by basing projections on recent stories; I think history is more reliable. The Wright flap, though damaging to the Obama campaign this week, is already showing signs of reversing itself: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/21/obama.wright/index.html. Gallup projected a seven-point jump for Obama since he gave his speech on race.

  5. PA is not an anti-war state. It is actually one of the most Pro-War Blue states.

  6. Nice to see you on board, Matt.

  7. Why is Nevada predicted to go for Obama? Nevada does not have a large African American community, and it does not have a large number of educated white liberals. The state is fairly split between Dems and Repubs, but the Dems who do win in Nevada tend to be pro-gun and are typically Mormon, like Harry Reid. Nevada also has a significant number of active duty military and veterans. Are you assuming the growing Latino population will vote for Obama? McCain is also from Arizona, next door. McCain’s only drawback is his opposition to some forms of gambling, but I don’t see Obama as having a chance in Nevada.

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