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Crude State-by-State projections

March 16, 2008

Obama seems to do better, but will this last?

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I have produced some crude projections based on the last five polls (or less – depending on availibility) rolling averages of state head-to-head between Obama/McCain and Clinton/McCain. These averages include data from 2007, give no weighting to size and will naturally favour the Democrats since they include polls of registered voters and all adults. However, they do give some indication to the potential battle grounds and where the candidates are weak. The electoral college results are (gains from 2004 are in brackets):

Barack Obama 291 (CO, IA, MO, NV, NM, ND, OH)
John McCain 247 (PA)

John McCain 282 (PA, WI, OR)
Hillary Clinton 245 (AR, MO, OH, WV)

(in the case of Clinton/McCain Washington is a tie)

Although this would seem to clearly suggest that Obama is more electable than Clinton it should be remembered that Obama has a long tail of weak states (where his margin is less than 5%). Excluding the tie in Washington, Clinton only has 6 weak states (HI, MI, MN, MO, NH, OH) comprising 66 electoral votes and threatens whereas Obama has 11 states (MA, MI, MO, NH, NJ, NM, ND, OH, OR WA, WI) with 119 electoral votes that are especially vulnerable. Clinton also threatens 7 states (WI, TN, PA, OR, NC, NM, FL) with 96 votes while Obama only is close to five more states (NE, NC, PA, SC, VA) with 62 votes. So, while the projections suggest Obama will get 291, (as opposed to 245 for Clinton) votes they also suggest the remarkably similar ranges of between 172 and 353 for Obama 179 and 352 for Clinton. Of course these figures are imprecise and will definitely change between now and November.

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One comment

  1. I don’t think Ohio will vote for either Democrat.



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