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Clinton/Obama electability gap widens

March 15, 2008

The gap between the implied electability of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama widens further.

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The markets are now implying that the difference in electability ( the chance of winning the Presidency / the chance of winning the nomination) between Obama and Clinton has widened.

Clinton = 18.5 / 26.2 = 70.6% electability if nominated

Obama = 44.8 / 73.9 = 60.6% electability if nominated

Personally I think the proper values are 50% and 5% respectively as Obama has been holed below the waterline by Jeremiah Wright.

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4 comments

  1. We should have no religious leaders on any campaigns and no religious leaders should endorse a candidate. There should be separation of church and state.And candidates should be forbidden to talk about their religious affiliation. Instead of being forced by political correctness to have one.


  2. If Clinton and Obama want to make sure one of them actually wins the election, they need to stop flinging dirt at each other. Here’s a simple way to do this:

    Both publicly pledge that if are nominated for President, the other candidate will be their first choice for the Vice Presidential spot.

    This immediately puts a stop to personal attacks, or calling their rival’s ability into question; you don’t disrespect you’re the person you’ve chosen to be your second-in-command. The candidates can still debate the issues and clarify their differences, but the main focus of their anger and outrage can now be directed at the Bush-McCain policies of the past 8 years.

    This fall, Obama or Clinton will need to lead a unified party if they want to ensure victory. This requires the enthusiastic support of the other, and of the voters who voted for him or her in the primaries and caucuses,

    Obama-Clinton, Clinton-Obama – either “dream team” is McCain’s worst nightmare. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can make that nightmare a reality for him now.


  3. Do you mean Clinton = 70.6% in your example..you have Obama = in twice..?


  4. Thanks!!



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