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Should you bet on an Obama-Clinton ticket?

March 13, 2008

Unlikely, but possible.

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Given that the chances of Obama and Clinton winning the nomination are about 50%, there has been a lot of talk about a ‘dream ticket’ of Obama and Clinton together. The idea is that this would add experience and the Latino vote to the ticket and help him in the North-East. However, my view is that although it would be better to have Hillary attacking the Republicans and it would probably reduce the chances of a McCain blowout, it would probably also shore up McCain’s base, while doing little to energise blue collar voters. Such a ticket would have a 10% chance of a victory rather than the 15-20% chance that an Obama/Sibelius or Obama/Webb ticket would have. I also think that Barack Obama doesn’t want to have the Clinton on his ticket after Ferraro’s coments. I would put the chances at no more than 10%.

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