Obama leads by 16.06% in Mississippi

March 9, 2008

The March 5th Rasmussen poll only lowers Obama’s lead very slightly.


Adding the Rasmussen poll to the collection of MS polls, I’ve come up with the following projections.

Barack Obama 53.09
Hillary Clinton 37.03

Obviously, this isn’t really different from my previous projection, but it does confirm the extent of Obama’s lead. However, Hillary has been campaigning hard in the state so we could possibly see the lead falling into single figures.



  1. Currently, Obama’s % average for primaries in the south is 59.97%, which is, unbelievably, also EXACTLY his national primary percentage average at this time: 59.97%! His margin average for the south is 25.91% and is 23.46% for the nation. He won AL with 56.96% and LA with 57.39%, essentially, both with 57%. However, Clinton won both adjacent states to the north: TN with 53.76% and her favorite daughter state of AR with a whomping 70.05%, the second largest primary win of the season after Obama’s DC rout and the sixth largest contest win overall of season (the first five top wins belong to Obama).

    So, a winning percent between 56%-58% would be consistent with the neighboring states in the Goldwater belt, but we are now a month past ST and there is still the TX turnaround of last week and Clinton is fighting a spirited and agressive campaign, which is what you are supposed to do in a tight race.

    What this means for me is that, should Obama lose or fall below 52%, Clinton is truly slowing him down. If he goes over 59%, then she has not stopped him at all and PA could become the nastiest and most expensive fight in the history of the union. Poor pennsylvanians. Bet they wish they Puxatawny Phil had not seen his shadow! 🙂

  2. Good point, but I think that she only needs to reduce him to 54% or under to really slow him down.

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