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Punters think that Clinton is more electable than Obama

March 8, 2008

But do they overestimate the electability of both of the Democrats?

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Comparing the prices on intrade.com for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to be both president and nominee throws up some interesting results (all prices are last traded prices):

Hillary Clinton: 17.7 / 26.6 = 66.5% chance of being elected if nominated.

Barack Obama: 46 / 72.5 = 63.4% chance of being elected if nominated.

Therefore the betting markets seem to be more positive about Clinton’s chances than those of Barack Obama. Personally, I believe that Obama has about a 15% chance of beating McCain while Hillary Clinton ticket has about 45% chance of beating the Senator from Arizona. This is because Hillary is a much more credible Commander-in-Chief than the inexperienced Obama, and she will probably emphasise domestic policy a lot more than the Senator from Illinois.

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