Punters think that Clinton is more electable than Obama

March 8, 2008

But do they overestimate the electability of both of the Democrats?


Comparing the prices on intrade.com for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to be both president and nominee throws up some interesting results (all prices are last traded prices):

Hillary Clinton: 17.7 / 26.6 = 66.5% chance of being elected if nominated.

Barack Obama: 46 / 72.5 = 63.4% chance of being elected if nominated.

Therefore the betting markets seem to be more positive about Clinton’s chances than those of Barack Obama. Personally, I believe that Obama has about a 15% chance of beating McCain while Hillary Clinton ticket has about 45% chance of beating the Senator from Arizona. This is because Hillary is a much more credible Commander-in-Chief than the inexperienced Obama, and she will probably emphasise domestic policy a lot more than the Senator from Illinois.


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