Peliminary National matchups

March 7, 2008

McCain leads in the early national matchups


I’ve deicided to do some preliminary national matchups for the Presidential election in November. I’ve only used surveys that look at likely voters, as opposed to adults, and I’m using Samplemiser to filter the data. Hopefully, Rasmussen will make their tracking data a bit clearer so I can start incorperating their polls as individual weekly polls. However, for the moment I’m sticking to the stuff on Polling Report.

My projections (last poll February 24th) are:

John McCain 47.73
Barack Obama 47

John McCain 50
Hillary Clinton 45.74

Good news for McCain, especially since the last poll used in this analysis took place before Obama’s NAFTA debacle and Hillary’s 3am ads, both of which should dent Obama’s ratings further.


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