Looking at the Survey USA projections

March 7, 2008

The Survey USA matchups are worse for the Democrats than the headline figures would suggest.



Survey USA have released 50 head-to-head match-ups between McCain and both Obama and Clinton. Both these match-ups show a tight contest with Clinton beating McCain 276-262 and Obama beating McCain 280-258. In fact, given that the media have been generally adulatory about both Obama and Clinton, these are tremendous figures for the Arizona Senator. It should be remembered that early opinion polls tend to favour Democrats and challengers, hence Bush’s fifteen point lead over Gore in 2000, Dukakis’ twenty-seven point lead in 1988 and Kerry’s constant spring leads over Bush in 2004. Once McCain can focus his energy on one candidate, and really go toe to toe with his opponent on national security and Iraq, we should expect that lead to widen.


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