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Liveblogging ‘Mini-Tuesday’

March 4, 2008

TPT monitors the election with fellow gamblers

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Note: Picture is not indicative of the weather out here!

20:48 (GMT). I am at the Elitebet offices in Highate (North London) with some fellow gamblers. Betfair and Intrade is running and I’ve got FOX and CNN on the TV screen and I am ready to go.

20:54. No exit poll news so far.

21:14. Just put £10 on Obama in RI in my Betfair account @ 13.00 (12/1).

21:18. CNN are talking about Clinton winnning Latino-Americans by 63-35. For reference the last SUSA poll (which had Obama slightly ahead by one, had Clinton winning 64-33).

21:39. There was a brief spike in Hillary Clinton’s price to the 30s. It’s now at 23,which is still higher than it has been for a long time.

21:58. Rumours on the MSNBC talk board that Obama is winning by a large amount in Texas and by a slight amount in Ohio. Remember rumours of a 13 point Obama lead in an exit poll in NH were floating about betting boards.

22:04. Put £6 on Hillary in Texas @ 2.02 and £10 on Ohio on Obama @ 5.7

22:20 Hillary drifted out to 2.20 in Texas on Betfair

22:42 6 in 10 voters in Ohio say economy most important issue (compared with 4 in 10 in last SUSA poll).

22:46 Put another £5 on Hillary in Texas @ 2.24.

23:04 Exits say Hillary carries women in Texas 54-46 the last SUSA poll says 57-39.

23:09 From Marc Ambinder’s website: The Clinton campaign, having recieved leaked exit polls showing slim leads in both Texas and Ohio, is already challenging, in the press, the aggressiveness of Obama’s caucus operation but is generally happy with early reports that turnout in Texas is high.

23:15 Exits say Huckabee carries Evangelicals 49-44 in Texas, Rasmussen said 50-42. Good news for McCain!

23:23. From DKos.

“First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, VermontThis is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It’s unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day. For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont. The second set is similarly close – Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
You’ll hear more as I learn more.”

23:36 From the comments section in Marc Ambinder’s web site “Grist for the mill:Sent: Tue Mar 04 17:18:14 2008 Subject:
Exits 1 and 2 wave RI — 49/49 OH — 49/51
TX — 51/49
First numbers are HRC
TEXAS
CBS News – HRC up 2 or 3 in TX
Fox News – Make up in the electorate is 31% Hispanic (2 to 1 for HRC); 19% African American (82% for Obama). Change is only polling 43% in Texas .OHIOFox News – [O] Down about 2 to 3 in Ohio .

CBS News – [O] Say up about 2 to 3″

23:43 Obama price tightening up to 4 on Rhode Island

23:48 Laid off £15 on Barack in RI @ 4.1. Stand to make £5 profit if Hillary wins but £73.50 if Obama wins.

23:53 Bet another £8 on Obama in Ohio @ 3.7.

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