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Can Hillary’s price go any lower?

March 2, 2008

Or has Senator Clinton’s price bottomed out?

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Hillary’s price has fallen in the past few days below 15 and has currently been hovering around the 13-14 mark for the last 24 hours (it is currently 13.7-13.8). Obviously, it will change when the results come through Monday night, but this raises the question of whether it can go any lower. From a fundamental perspective it does seem low. If Hillary can win both Rhode Island and Ohio and at least the popular vote in Texas, Obama’s momentum will be stopped dead and she can start trying to win over Superdelegates. After looking at the polls more carefully, I would suggest that there is a 65% chance of her winning RI and OH and a 45% chance of her winning the popular vote in Texas (about a 30% chance overall). Then I would give her at least a 70% chance (and probably 80%) chance of being able to outmanoevre Obama from that position. Therefore the price should be between 20-25%.

There is also the technical perspective. If you look at the chart you can see that up until yesterday it had been forming a downward slope. However, it now seems to have bottomed out, breaking the trendline. There are also rumours of a large number of Canadian punters putting money on Hillary in droves, presumably in response to the NAFTA scandal. Therefore I believe that there might be some value in putting some money on Hillary.

What do you think? Please leave your comments below.

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One comment

  1. Whatever. You declared Hillary a great buy on Feb 4 when it was around 50, then made the same point after Super Tuesday when it fell to 40, and told people to “take advantage of such prices” after prices fell below 30 and then 25, all the while saying her chances were at least 50%. After it hit 20 you still said her chances stood at 40%. And now it has crashed below 15 and you are saying it should be 25%. This is hilarious.



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